Indian IT Industry - 10 yrs from now

Ten years from now, India could surely boast of infrastructure comparable with any other country of the world, hopefully by then scientists would have found a cure for AIDS, and astronauts might have conquered Mars (if only you believe they already conquered moon). But this blog entry isn’t about the advancements that will happen by the year 2020. It is an eye opener for most of us working in the IT industry today.

With the ever rising salaries and perks in the Indian IT Industry (IITI going forward), the dream run of an enthusiastic, and I dare say, a slightly knowledgeable IT professional doesn’t seem to end anytime soon. You walk into the office of any IT company, and you see young men and women, mostly in their 20s, dressed impeccably in branded outfits, some flaunting there expensive cell phones, others there cool iPods. Today the average age of a software professional in the IITI is around 26-27, and that is why we see the Indian economy booming. With more than 50% of Indian population less than 35 yrs of age, and a major part of it making as much as they are today, there is no stopping the Retail juggernaut folks. However not to digress from the point i want to make, lets pick one out of these lakhs n lakhs of young software professionals, and see what his (female readers please feel free to read her) current aspirations are and what is in store for him 10 yrs from now.

This person could be working in any big or small IT company, and is having around 3 yrs of industry experience. This much experience is just enough for him to to find a berth in the most restless group amongst the software professionals - people with 3 to 9 yrs of exp. Industry experts agree that this is the group of people who are the most ambitious and thereby the most vulnerable targets of offers from other companies. At his level of experience he would be working in the capacity of either a software engineer or a sr. software engineer and would continue to do so for about another 2 to 3 yrs before he gets a lead role, and then again the same number of yrs more for his next promotion, and this can go on for some more years. He expects a promotion every 2 yrs, and if its not coming even in the 3rd yr, he quits and moves to another organization, which is ready to accept him at a higher level. This transition might not take him more than a month, and may be even less if he is working in some IT hub. The speedy transition doesn’t necessarily highlight his technical skills; it could actually be because of the huge deficit in the demand and supply of professionals at the middle management level, we see at present in the IITI. So don’t be surprised if our software professional ends up being a sr. project manager or a delivery manager, in 10 yrs time from now.

But there is a slight problem with a promotion every couple of yrs. So long we were only talking of single software professional. Come to think of it, what happens when the complete breed of software engineers is promoted to sr. software engineers, or all the sr. software engineers to project leads, or all project leads to project managers...finally all vice presidents to presidents??? Naaaah!!!! Multiple presidents of a single company...not a very good situation. So we do agree that not all at the same level can be promoted to the next level (at once).

Ten yrs from now, IITI is all set to face a challenge of its own kind, a challenge not from their western counterparts, nor from other developing economies, but a challenge from deep inside the industry itself. It will be a challenge from the people that make up this industry. Ten yrs from now, the now 26-27 yrs old would be 36-37, the now single and ready to mingle would be settled with there families, the cool and care free youth of today would be parents by then. The happy developer of now would no longer be happy being just a developer. He would necessarily seek promotion, and its when all these lakhs and lakhs of Hes and Shes of the industry that demand promotion at once, would the curtains draw on the IITI. It remains a fact that there could never be as many project managers in the industry as there are developers today; there could never be as many architects in the industry as there are project leads today; and surely not as many CEOs as many project managers or delivery managers are present today. With the rising Rupee and declining US economy the situation has already started to look gloomy for a lot of IT companies (what else will justify a more than 25% fall in the stock prices of leading Indian IT companies over the last 6 months period).

Companies have to come up with innovative ideas to keep the workforce involved and interested in the work they are doing today. New designations, new roles, new responsibilities have to be unearthed if the now 26-27 yrs old have to be kept happy when they become 36-37. New career paths have to be chalked out, and not every technocrat must end his career in people management. More opportunities have to be created within the companies itself, so that even if your designation doesn't change, you have something new to do at your workplace. The system could either be made even more hierarchical, adding more and more (pseudo) designations to the current hierarchy or otherwise the hierarchy could be abolished and a flatter organization structure can be promoted. The former gives the companies a chance of promoting people every few yrs to the next level in the hierarchy, but not necessarily adding to there responsibilities. While in the latter knowing the flat structure of the organization the very desire of promotion is eliminated and the responsibilities can always be added on as a person gains on experience.

What needs to be done is for the big bosses to decide, but if the necessary is not done, what is today the strength of the rising Indian economy, could very well be a big deterrent in future.